Crypto gamblers are wagering a staggering $445 million on the potential presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, propelling election betting to unprecedented heights on Polymarket. According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket's cumulative bet volume soared to $1.03 billion in July, a significant increase from $283.16 million in July 2023.
Polymarket, the "world's largest prediction market," allows users to bet on various news events, including the US presidential election. The platform has drawn significant attention in recent weeks following headlines about Kamala Harris's potential Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on Trump.
Despite its American focus, Polymarket remains inaccessible to US users, who must use VPNs and crypto wallets.
The platform's statistics reveal that Harris doubled the Democrats' odds of winning after President Biden withdrew from the race, while Trump maintains a significant lead with a 59% chance of victory. Key battleground states show strong Republican favorability, with swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania leaning towards Republicans.
Polymarket whales favor Trump over Harris, but numerous smaller bets support Harris's recent gains. Republicans are favored to control the presidency and Senate, while Democrats are favored for the House.
Harris has a 96% chance of being the Democratic nominee, followed by Michelle Obama. Josh Shapiro leads the Democratic vice presidential candidate race, followed closely by Mark Kelly.
